Iran

 

https://www.ted.com/talks/bruce_bueno_de_mesquita_a_prediction_for_the_future_of_iran?language=id

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses mathematical analysis to predict (very often correctly) such messy human events as war, political power shifts, Intifada ... After a crisp explanation of how he does it, he offers three predictions on the future of Iran. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts5MKtXNpMQ

https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/319571.Bruce_Bueno_de_Mesquita

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/6637965-the-predictioneer-s-game